Black Friday 2025 Warm-up: What Competitors Are Already Doing

The consolidated analysis of ~3,200 campaigns monitored by Batedor in September 2025 shows that the Black Friday warm-up started 3 weeks earlier than the historical average. There are structural reasons: in September Brazilian retail arrived with inventory ~14% above expectations (NielsenIQ Connect, Aug/25) and pressure to move stock.

The first moves showed up earlier

The Brazilian pre-BF started in mid-September, earlier than expected. Typical observed distribution:

Most common campaign types in the warm-up phase

• 10-15% coupon for sign-up to email/WhatsApp — captures the acquisition list with low depth (a relatively low acquisition cost).
• “Warm-up” with 5-10% on long-tail SKUs — clearing stock without compromising the anchor SKU.
• Conditional free shipping above the average ticket — encourages a bigger cart without passing on direct margin.
• Low-cost gifts tied to anchor categories — generates organic buzz with no significant direct cost.

What this suggests for your strategy

Whoever still hasn’t set their mechanics by the end of October ends up reacting. Use the next 4 weeks to:

1. Consolidate your email/WhatsApp list — your own base is the cheapest channel for targeted offers in November.
2. Test the depth your audience accepts — run an 8-12% coupon on the long tail and measure the conversion lift.
3. Calibrate cross-channel communication — Instagram + email + ads need to be in sync during BF week.
4. Map the curve of the 3-5 direct competitors — whoever started early will likely have a flattened curve in the decisive week.

Warning sign: a flattened curve

A competitor dropping a “warm-up” coupon every week will likely reach BF with a flattened curve — they won’t be able to go as deep on the decisive day. Whoever holds back now has ammunition to go deeper during BF week.